11 May 2011

Yesterday’s news and future scenarios

Written by Leena Vuorinen
Published in Oil products

It has been a full year since all global media aimed attention to Gulf of Mexico. Toll of the spill was high; human casualties and environmental disaster. Given the fact that spilled barrels were relatively modest compared to global daily oil demand, it had little impact on oil balances or price. That does not allow undermining local environmental effects, though. Safety of deepwater drilling and speculation of possible similar future events were discussed both in private and public forums. One year later Japan’s earthquake and the following tsunami caused a crisis impacting global energy prices. This time nuclear power has gotten most attention. Current political disputes in the Middle East have added their share to energy discussions. At the same time economic growth sets ever increasing pressure to tackle demand – yet to be done environmentally friendly. What will the future hold for an oil company?

Continuous political unrest, military operations, natural disasters, and climate change effect oil balance, price, and energy security all over the world. News flow is one of the most important information sources for a market analyst. However, when headlines change many times a day, analysis and conclusions formation take much longer. BP is no longer a top 5 topic, yet the aftermath of the disaster is still unfinished. Consumer sentiment towards nuclear power in the Western world has long been unfavorable. Green values take over.

Complex business environment increases pressure for comprehensive business environment analysis. Neste Oil’s Business Intelligence offers market insights to support strategic decision making. As an oil refiner we cannot solely concentrate on oil markets, though. Transportation fuels are only one solution in energy pool. Changing business environment sets challenges for market analysis. Definition of competitors is widening as renewable energies emerge. We need to be pro-active in searching and analyzing early signals. Unfortunately there really is no crystal ball to look into!

Leena Vuorinen
Manager, Business Intelligence